Philippines' Rice Production Remains Stagnant Despite Government Interventions - Ateneo Scientists

Variations in total palay (unmilled rice) production across Philippine regions between 2013 and 2023, according to PSA data. Source: Bartelet et al., 2025

• Rising Consumption Gap: Filipinos consume more rice than domestic farms produce, increasing import reliance.
• Uneven Regional Output: Some regions boost yields while others face farmland loss and climate setbacks.
• Targeted Policy Needs: Closing the rice deficit requires climate-resilient and region-specific interventions.

Despite decades of government programs to boost harvests, the Philippines continues to face a widening rice gap. In 2022 alone, the country consumed 2.3 million metric tons more rice than it produced, representing an 18 percent shortfall. This reliance on imported rice persists even as local production initiatives roll out nationwide. 

New research from Ateneo de Manila University’s John Gokongwei School of Management and Department of Environmental Science highlights why national rice output has remained largely stagnant since 2017, painting a clear picture of the challenges ahead.

Slow Growth in Production

Over the ten years leading up to 2023, total palay (unmilled rice) production increased by just 9 percent, from 18.4 to 20.1 million metric tons, while the Filipino population and rice consumption continued to rise. Farmland barely expanded, growing only 1 percent from 4.7 to 4.8 million hectares, and average yields improved by just 7 percent, from 3.9 to 4.2 metric tons per hectare. These figures reveal a fundamental issue: simply consuming more rice has not prompted proportional growth in domestic production.

The Myth of Urbanization

It’s often assumed that urban expansion eats into farmland, but the researchers found little evidence that city growth alone is behind stagnant production. Instead, a mix of limited farmland expansion, slow yield growth, climate shocks, and uneven public investment in rice areas appears to be constraining local output. This nuanced understanding challenges a widely held narrative about urbanization and farmland loss.

Sharp Regional Contrasts

The research also revealed stark differences between regions. From 2018 to 2023, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Eastern Visayas (Region VIII) saw rice production drop by 15 percent and 11 percent, respectively. These declines were driven by farmland loss, stagnant yields, repeated typhoons and droughts, and the diversion of land to more profitable crops.

Meanwhile, other regions showed impressive gains. The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) increased rice output by 40 percent, while Cagayan Valley (Region II) and Ilocos (Region I) posted increases of 27 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Researchers attribute these successes to expanding irrigated areas, improved yields, and support programs including better seeds, mechanization, and targeted regional initiatives.

Infrastructure and Support Programs

Programs aimed at boosting productivity, like seed distribution and mechanization efforts, have played a crucial role in helping farmers improve yields and harvesting efficiency. Infrastructure improvements, including better irrigation and farm-to-market roads, have also contributed to farmland expansion. In the case of the BARMM, growth is further linked to dedicated investments in rice infrastructure and the peace dividends that come with increased political stability.

Policy Insights for National Growth

Even with the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) under the Rice Tariffication Law (RA 11203) extended to 2031, national programs alone have not been sufficient to raise productivity in lagging regions. The experiences of successful regions like BARMM, Cagayan Valley, and Ilocos highlight the potential benefits of region-specific policies and investment strategies. Meanwhile, the setbacks in CAR and Eastern Visayas underscore the need to avoid repeating mistakes elsewhere.

Closing the Philippines’ rice deficit will require climate-resilient and regionally tailored strategies, including stronger irrigation systems, better-targeted support services, and financial measures to lower farmers’ costs. The Ateneo researchers express cautious optimism, noting that, with the right complement of policies and investments, local rice production can still grow and help reduce dependence on imports.

Research Contributions

The findings come from the paper Understanding rice production stagnation in the Philippines: Regional evidence and development implications by Henry A. Bartelet, Alenn Jhulia D. Prodigalidad, Janelle S. Dy, and Jan Gabriel N. Manzano, published in the open-access journal PLOS One. By analyzing Philippine Statistics Authority data, the study provides a roadmap for policy interventions that could finally align rising consumption with sustainable local production.

For the average Filipino, these insights are crucial. Beyond statistics and policy, they speak to the nation’s ability to ensure food security, reduce reliance on imports, and ultimately make local rice farming a more viable livelihood. By learning from both successes and failures across regions, stakeholders—from government bodies to farmers themselves—can chart a path toward a more self-sufficient and resilient rice sector.

In a country where rice is more than just a staple, these findings serve as a timely reminder that consumption habits must be paired with strategic production policies. Only then can the Philippines hope to bridge the rice gap and secure a sustainable future for its food systems.

(Source)